I know that many of you will be looking for some kind of incredible insight from me, but the truth is sometimes the market is simply what it looks like. In this sense, I feel that a lot of new traders will continually look to “outsmart” the herd, but in the end they will only “outsmart” themselves. By doing so, they end up losing money in the end. The truth is that there are trends in the market, and the easiest way to make money is to simply follow the flow of money – or the trend. This means that you have to notice what is working overall, and buying only that.
The US Dollar is without a doubt one of the strongest performing assets in the world right now, as seen in several markets. The EUR/USD pair is failing again, and looks ready to test the 1.25 level. The EUR/USD pair mirrors the US Dollar Index, but in an inverse sense. The US Dollar Index looks as if it is forming a bullish flag, and that it is ready to go much higher. The EUR/USD pair is also forming a flag – but a bearish one.
The gold markets look very vulnerable as well, as the $1200 level seems to be ready to give way to the sellers, which means the Dollar should continue to strengthen. This of course should continue to be the way going forward, and I think that a breakdown below there could very well send us down to the $1000 level next. In other words, the USD could have quite a way to go as far as the uptrend is concerned. I also think that the concerns out of the European Union should continue to drive demand in the Dollar as well.
With this, the market should continue to be one that you think of in terms of “What is the Dollar doing today?” I know it isn’t sexy or exciting, but the truth is that the market is pretty clear as to what it wants to do as far as the world’s reserve currency is concerned. Because of this, it is your job to follow the leads that are laid out for you. Otherwise, you will be the one paying those who do.