USD/JPY Continues To Be Well Supported; Gold Remains Under Pressure

EUR/USD

The euro resumes down move off 1.3992, 08 May 2014 peak, after two-day narrow consolidation followed last Thursday’s sharp fall. The price probes below 1.29 handle, psychological support / Fibonacci 161.8% expansion of the wave from 1.3699, after bull-trendline, connecting 1.2660 and 1.2754 lows at 1.2930, was taken out. Next key levels lay at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 2012/2014 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and 1.2750 zone, Mar/July 2013 lows, higher platform. Overall outlook remains bearish, however, oversold daily studies suggest that corrective actions in the near-term cannot be ruled out. Psychological 1.3000 barrier offers good resistance and caps for now.

Res: 1.2900; 1.2920; 1.2956; 1.2987
Sup: 1.2865; 1.2800; 1.2786; 1.2750



EUR/JPY

The pair enters near-term corrective phase after last week strong bears found temporary footstep at 135.80, just ahead of key support at 135.71. Bounce to the levels ticks away fro psychological 137 barrier, sideline immediate downside risk, as the rally retraced nearly 50% of 138.27/135.80 descend and near-term technicals establishing in bullish mode. However, clear break above 137 barrier is required to confirm scenario and push the price in the upper section of short-term 135.71/138.27 range. Otherwise, the downside will remain at risk in the near-term, as daily studies hold bearish tone.

Res: 137.00; 137.32; 137.67; 138.00
Sup: 136.57; 136.30; 136.00; 135.80



GBP/USD

Cable remains under pressure and resumes steep downleg which commenced from 1.6642, 01 Sep lower top and was accelerated by weekly gap-lower opening. The price approaches its target and psychological support at 1.6000, which also marks a mid-point of one-year 1.4812/1.7189 rally. Break lower to target 1.5967, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave from 1.6642 and 1.5900, round figure support, in extension. Oversold near-term condition may show hesitation ahead of 1.6000 target, with bounces to face initial resistances at 1.6185 and 1.6230 and 1.6280 zone last Friday’ lows, expected to cap. Overall bearish structure sees the downside favored, despite oversold daily studies, as sentiment is still negative and no reversal signals being generated yet.

Res: 1.6185; 1.6230; 1.6280; 1.6300
Sup: 1.6062; 1.6000; 1.5967; 1.5900



USD/JPY

The pair remains well supported and continues to trend higher, with 106 barrier being taken out. Fresh gains post new 4-year highs, with upside targets at 107.20, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the upleg from 100.81 and 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection. Further gains are expected to open Sep 2008 high at 109.10, and lower top at 110.66, posted in Aug 2008. Initial supports lay at 105.70 and 105 zone, ahead of higher base at 104.70, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 105.21; 105.70; 106.00; 106.20
Sup: 105.70; 105.00; 104.70; 104.26



AUD/USD

Near-term structure turned bearish as yesterday’s long red candle reversal after 0.94 upside rejection, signal further weakness. Bears took out 0.9260, 03 Sep higher low and the last support on the way to 0.9237, near-term base. This level offers strong support and potential break lower would turn overall picture firmly bearish and signal resumption of larger descend off 0.9503, 01 July peak. Negatively aligned daily studies support the notion, however, consolidative action ahead of this support is expected, as near-term studies are oversold. Psychological 0.93 barrier, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9400/0.9248 downleg, offers initial barrier, with extended rallies to be capped by 0.9330, to maintain negative structure.

Res: 0.9287; 0.9300; 0.9330; 0.9372
Sup: 0.9248; 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9180



AUD/NZD

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh high at 1.129, with initial support at psychological 1.1200 level, being tested so far. Pullback should be ideally reversed at 1.1200/1.1185 support zone, 50% / 61.8% retracement of 1.1117/1.1293 upleg, also previous tops of 29/29 Aug, to keep the structure intact for fresh attempt higher towards initial target at 1.1319, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1.1576/1.0488 descend and 1.1363, Nov 2013 high, in extension. Otherwise, further easing is expected to sideline bulls.

Res: 1.1236; 1.1272; 1.1300; 1.1319
Sup: 1.1200; 1.1185; 1.1150; 1.1117



XAU/USD

Spot Gold remains under pressure and resumed the downleg off 1296, 28 Aug lower top. Fresh weakness reached levels just ahead of the next target at 1250, 10 June low, with key support at 1240, 03 June higher base, being in near-term focus. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and sees scope for completion of 1240/1344 corrective rally and eventual break lower, which is expected to resume larger down move from 1344, 10 July peak. Limited upside action are seen ahead of final push towards 1240 target, with 1270 zone expected to cap extended rallies.

Res: 1258; 1261; 1267; 1273
Sup: 1250; 1240; 1231; 1215