Talking Points
- USD/JPY holding under key resistance
- USD/CAD consolidates gains
- USD/CHF enters important short-term turn window
Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
USD/JPY" title="USD/JPY" height="294" width="680" />
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/JPY remains in consolidation mode below the 2nd square root relationship of the year-to-date low at 102.75
- Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/JPY while above 101.35
- A clear move through 102.75 is needed to trigger a more important advance in the exchange rate
- An cycle turn window of some importance is seen over the next day or so
- A daily close below the 4th square root relationship of the year’s high at 101.35 would turn us negative
USD/JPY Strategy: Square for the moment. Need to see the rate settle over 102.75 before committing to long positions.
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
*101.35 |
102.00 |
102.30 |
*102.75 |
103.15 |
USD/CAD" title="USD/CAD" height="294" width="680" />
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
- USD/CAD reversed sharply higher last week from the 1.0905 3rd square root relationship of year’s high
- Our near-term trend bias is positive in Funds while above 1.0905
- The rate has so far encountered resistance at the 88.6% retracement of the Jan/Feb range at 1.1185 and a move through this level is needed signal a resumption of the broader move higher
- A very minor cycle turn is seen on Thursday
- Weakness below 1.0905 would turn us negative on Funds
USD/CAD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.0905.
|
Instrument |
Support 2 |
Support 1 |
Spot |
Resistance 1 |
Resistance 2 |
|
*1.0905 |
1.1000 |
1.1085 |
1.1120 |
*1.1185 |
Focus Chart of the Day: USD/CHF
USD/CHF" title="USD/CHF" height="294" width="680" />
As we made mention on Monday, the next 24-36 hours or so look important for the Euro from a short-term cyclical perspective. This logic extends to USD/CHF as well as the exchange rate has some interesting Fibonacci time relationships of its own converging over the next day or so. A reversal of some kind looks possible during this time especially if the rate can continue to hold above key support near .8850 (2013 closing low). A settle over .8900 would be further evidence of at least a near-term bottom.
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com