Talking Points:
- Australian Dollar Drops as RBA Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Rebuild
- 2Q US GDP Revision May Boost US Dollar, Trigger Renewed Risk Aversion
The Australian dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The currency briefly popped higher after the second-quarter CAPEX report revealed an upgrade to the 2015-16 outlook, but sellers swiftly retook the initiative. Prices declined alongside Australian front-end bond yields, hinting the move reflected continued deterioration in RBA policy bets. Traders are pricing in at least one 25bps reduction in the cash rate over the coming 12 months.
A lackluster economic calendar in European trading hours will see traders looking ahead to a revised set of second-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized growth rate is expected to be revised higher to 3.2 percent from the previously estimated 2.3 percent print. A supportive outcome may rekindle speculation that the Federal Reserve may yet raise interest rates this year, boosting the US dollar and rekindling risk aversion amid fears that tightening will hurt global growth.
