A definite down week for the US dollar with Syria and the impending FOMC at the forefront of news, here are the US Dollar positives and negatives for the 9th of September until the 13th of September.
US Dollar Positive
USD – !!! – 10-y Bond Auction 2.95|2.9
USD – !! – Unemployment Claims 292K vs 332K
USD – !!! – Federal Budget Balance -147.9B vs -155.3B
USD – !! – PPI m/m 0.3% vs 0.2%
JPY – !!! – Final GDP 0.9% vs 1.0%
CHF – ! – Retail Sales 0.8% vs 3.2%
EUR – !!! – French Industrial Production -0.6% vs 0.7%
CNY – !! – New Loans 711B vs 731B
USD – !! – JOLTS Job Openings 3.69M vs 3.96M
GBP – ! – Average Earnings Index 3m/y 1.1% vs 1.3%
JPY – !!! – Core Machinery Orders 0.0% vs 2.5%
AUD – !! – Employment Change -10.8K vs 10.2K
EUR – !!! – Industrial Production -1.5% vs -0.1%
GBP – ! – MPC Member Miles Speaks = doveish
JPY – !! – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes = doveish
EUR – !!! – ECB President Draghi Speaks = Doveish
total = 36!
US Dollar Negative
CNY – !!! – Trade Balance 28.5B vs 20.3B
AUD – ! – Home Loans 2.4% vs 2.2%
CAD – ! – Building Permits m/m 20.7% vs 4.4%
CNY – !!! – Industrial Production 10.4% vs 9.9%
JPY – !!! – BSI Manufacturing Index 15.2 vs 7.2
GBP – !!! – Claimant Count Change -32.6K vs -21.2K
GBP – !!! – Unemployment Rate 7.7% vs 7.8%
USD – !! – Import Prices 0.0% vs 0.6%
USD – !!! – Core Retail Sales 0.1% vs 0.3%
USD – !!! – Retail Sales 0.2% vs
USD – !!! – Core PPI 0.0% vs 0.2%
USD – !!! – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 76.8 vs 82.6
USD – !!!! – President Obama Speaks = Diplomatic solution to Syria
total = 35!
What Does This All Mean?
More poor data from the US and a likely diplomatic solution to Syria indicate the potential for downside for the dollar as doubts creep in regarding the FOMC taper of asset purchases due to continued softening data from the USD. With the potential to surprise either way though at the FOMC, this result could be viewed a draw.