UK Manufacturing PMI is usually a high impact yet very tradable release out of UK, and considering recent consolidation and risk sentiment, if we were to get a strong surprise, we should see plenty of momentum behind Sterling…
Here’s the forecast:
4:30am (NY Time) UK Manufacturing PMI Forecast 51.9 Previous 51.9
DEVIATION: 2.0 (BUY GBP 53.9 / SELL GBP 49.9)
The Trade Plan
We´re looking for a tradable deviation (or the difference between the forecast figure and the actual release figure) of 2.0. Since this is a leading indicator and its impact may hint the future trend of other economic indicators (such as inventory, employment, retail sales, etc..), the market usually reacts to this release with volatility if we get our deviation.
We´ll be looking to BUY GBP if we get a 53.9 or better, or looking to SELL GBP if we get a 49.9 or worse. We´ll use the Retracement Trading Method to trade this release. For more information,
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: GBP/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
UK Manufacturing PMI is a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector on various economic activities, including inventory, employment, orders, etc… A higher than 50 reading means expansion, or a less than 50 reading means contraction.