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UK Hedge Funds Have An Edge On Brexit Vote

Published 06/22/2016, 11:30 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

The British government allows large hedge funds to conduct their own exit polling. And while they're not allowed to release their findings until 22:00 British Summer Time (BST), there is no prohibition against their trading based on the data they collect. Properly sampled Brexit exit polling in UK voting is extremely accurate (usually within a +/- 1% error).

Hours Ahead

These funds will have a good indication of the Brexit vote by midday BST and will almost certainly have solid data by 18:00 BST. There is an embargo on publishing results until 22:00 BST. Thus, hedge funds will have a lead of many hours over the average market speculator. The current betting odds put the outcome at 75% “remain”.

My view is that a trader should not attempt to maximize profits on any given government report, event, day, week, month or even year — but aim to construct risk management practices geared to the longevity of market speculation over decades. Accordingly, I have covered all financially related positions.

Latest comments

I dont know how it goes tomorrow. I have hedged a bit, but Mostly im betting for a remain outcome. A question: If you hedge all position, then how do you make profit... Gotta take some risks, this can be a very fruitful opportunity.
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