The United Arab Emirates is expecting more competition in the oil market in 2015 from Latin America and West Africa, according to a senior UAE government official.
Deputy Director of marketing and refining at government-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Mubarak al-Ketbi, said global oil demand is forecast at 91.19 million barrels per day in 2014, and is expected to increase 1.19 million bpd next year.
"Asian oil demand growth will continue to increase, contributing about 33% of total world demand," Ketbi said at Platts` Middle East Crude Oil Summit in Dubai.
"The traditional trade flow into Asia has witnessed diversification, particularly West African and Latin American crudes being moved to Asia due to lower US crude imports amid higher flows of Canadian heavy crudes into the US," Ketbi said.
Exports to the U.S. have fallen nearly 1 million bpd to 2.5 million since 2005, and the displaced portion is being transferred into Asia. Latin America’s exports to Asia in 2013 totaled 1.1 million bpd, nearly 30% of total Latin American exports. This amount is expected to hit 53% of total shipments by 2030.
Although the Middle Eastern crude oil is the main source of crude exports to Asia, arbitrage crude oil flows from the West to the East are rising.
There are some fears also of developments in the U.S. that could result in lifting a 40-year-old bank on crude oil exports.
Abu Dhabi has strong relationships with Asian crude buyers, and many are long-term relationships, so it is unlikely that it will enter a price ware any time soon to keep market share.