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Big Energy Hopes High For Trump

Published 11/09/2016, 10:38 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

President Elect Donald Trump shocked the world and along with it, gave hope to a beleaguered energy industry. The energy revolution that transformed the US economy was getting hit with low prices and burdensome regulations, now has hope that a President Trump can drive more reasonable and smarter regulation.

Trump capitalized on the growing discontent in America that felt the elite in Washington were the ones that were capitalizing on the economic recovery at the expense of the average, hard working Americas. While Hillary Clinton tried to say that she was for the middle class and the poor, the truth is the gap between the rich and the poor over the last 8 years has soared at a record pace. The middle class has been hit with soaring health care costs and stagnant wages. America voted for change because the promises of the last 8 years were unfulfilled as the Democratic demographic has suffered in this economy

President Elect Trump started off on the right foot by calming markets that where fearful of the impact of some of the harsh rhetoric might have on trade deals. His market savvy comments were a sign that he does have an idea of how markets work and his conciliatory tone avoided a market panic. The markets now will take a pause and try to asses exactly how he'll address issues on trade and job-losses as we move forward.

The Energy Industry will be very happy as a president Trump will take a harder line with OPEC and revisit things like the Keystone Pipeline that started the anti-pipeline movement in this country that threaten to lead to shortages of supply and sharply higher energy costs down the road. Andrew Weisman of EBW AnalyticsGroup said the delay of the building of the Penn-East gas pipeline could lead to sharply higher prices. Amid growing opposition from residents and key government agencies, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) today announced a second delay in its schedule for reviewing the proposed PennEast pipeline. The date for issuance of the final environmental impact statement was postponed to February 17, 2017 from December 16, 2016, as acknowledged by the New Jersey Conservation Foundation.

The market may find out that Trump is bullish for stocks. He has vowed to cut corporate taxes and despite the sharp sell-off in trade policy worries, this should be help US companies. A revamping of US corporate tax policy may bring more business home that have looked to going offshore to get a tax advantage. His trade policy tough talk may put him in a strong tactical position to revamp deals that have not been working for most Americans. Trump’s talk of rebuilding the military should be great for defense stocks. Big pharma may also benefit.

For the crude oil market we are seeing the balance between a weak dollar and a bearish number from the American Petroleum Institute (API). The API reported crude supplies increased by a more than expected 4.4 million barrels. This was caused in part by the shutting down of the Colonial pipline that led to a 3.6 million barrel drop in gasoline supply and a 4.3 million barrel drop in distillate.

For both oil and gas, use weakness to put on bullish popostions. We think that traders will start to focus on structural issues after we see the weather get more normal. For oil an OPEC deal should get done.

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