Take a look at the Valu-Line index over the past couple of decades. Is that a “Triple Top” in the broad-based index?
One year ago this week (4/24/15) the Valu Line peaked as it was hitting highs reached in the late 1990s and 2007.
Was this index influenced by the “Sell-in-May” theme back then?
Did a “Triple Top” take place a year ago? The jury is still out on this billion-dollar question.
One thing is certain, which is that over the past year, the index has been in a down trend, creating a series of lower highs and lower lows inside of falling channel (A).
At this time the index is testing falling resistance at (1) and has the chance to break the down trend.
A key test of falling resistance is in play at (1) above. How this index handles that resistance should tell us a ton about where the S&P 500 heads over the next few weeks and months.
Since it's that time of year (Sell-in-May), this is NOT where bulls want to see weakness creeping into the markets.