Surprise, surprise, surprise. Following a string of unexpectedly poor economic reports, GDP estimates for third quarter are slowing ratcheting lower.
The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model lowered its 3rd quarter estimated to 2.9% today. It’s the first sub-3% estimate for the quarter. And I believe it will keep dropping.
Latest forecast: 2.9 percent — September 20, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on September 20, down from 3.0 percent on September 15. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth ticked down from 3.1 percent to 3.0 percent after last Friday’s Consumer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecast of third-quarter real residential investment growth remained at -6.3 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Economic Hit Parade
- September 15: Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dip 0.3% – Weakness Not Contained to Autos
- September 15: PPI Synopsis: Final Demand for Goods -0.4%, Food Prices Down, Obamacare Up
- September 15: Collision Course: Motor Vehicle Production +0.5%, Motor Vehicle Sales -4.4% Year-Over-Year
- September 16: Real Hourly Earnings Decrease 0.1%, Real Weekly Earnings Drop 0.4%, Hooray!
- September 16: Good News For Inflationists: Medical Costs and Rent Surge; Mini-Stagflation Coming Up?
- September 20:Housing Starts Down 5.4 Percent: Bloomberg Says “Not as Weak as it Looks”
That’s one heck of a lot of “anomalies” in six days.
Amusingly, the Wall Street Journal was talking about an “October Surprise” just two days ago in its “Real Time Election 2016” analysis.
“U.S. Economic Growth May Accelerate Just Before Election Day” said the Journal.
I replied … 3rd Quarter GDP: October Surprise? Which Way?
If the “anomalies” pile up, 2.0% will be looking “up”.