We´ll be getting the Canadian Employment Change release number today and with the recent weakness in CAD, a weak release could push the currency to ranges unseen in the past few weeks…
8:30am (NY Time) CAD Employment Change Forecast 25.4K Previous -9.4K
8:30am (NY time) CAD Unemployment Rate Forecast 7.0% Previous 7.1%
DEVIATION: 25K (BUY CAD at 50.4K / SELL CAD at 0.4K)
The Trade Plan
The Canadian Employment Change report will be released at 8:30am sharp today. What I am looking for is a minimum deviation of around 25K, or the difference between the Forecast number (25.4K) versus the actual release number; if we get a positive 50.4K of release, we should see demand for the CAD rise, therefore we should BUY CAD against weaker currencies at the time; however, if we get a negative deviation, such as 0.4K or worse, we should see some weakness in the CAD, and that will be my cue to SELL CAD against stronger currencies at the time.
I´ll also pay close attention to the unemployment rate, which is expected at 7.0%. As long as this number does not conflict with the Employment Changes, we should follow the direction of the news release. If we get a conflict, such as better Employment Changes but higher Unemployment Rate, then we´ll need to look at the context of the market before taking the trade.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news, of course, you can also trade the default pair: USD/CAD.
Outlook Score Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation´s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”