You can read part 1 here.
Global Data Highlights
Monday, May 25, 2015
22:45 GMT New Zealand Trade Balance (April)
The mood in New Zealand hasn’t been too positive lately as many of the indicators that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looks to for encouragement haven’t been encouraging. Inflation has struggled, milk prices have fallen consecutively, and employment was subpar as well. All of the negativity has the RBNZ openly discussing rate cuts, which has severely damaged the hopes of NZD bulls. If the negativity has leaked in to consumerism, watch for this trade balance to miss its 100M consensus. Interestingly, this report has flip-flopped from beats to misses for six consecutive months, so if that pattern were to continue, this release would be a miss.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015
12:30 GMT US Durable Goods Orders (April)
We say this every month, but…this is a fascinating economic release: not for its significance to the economy, but for its seeming inability to be properly predicted. Consensus is notoriously terrible at getting anywhere near the actual figure as it swings wildly from positive to negative, so expectations don’t play into it significantly. For what it’s worth, consensus is calling for a 0.4% decline, the first time they’ve predicted a negative figure this year, so anything positive could be a welcome surprise and give the USD a boost along the way.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015
6:00 GMT Gfk German Consumer Confidence Survey (June)
While the ZEW consumer survey has been consistently declining, the Gfk consumer survey has been trending higher, rising each of the last 7 months. Considering the mood in the Eurozone, it would seem difficult to maintain that run, but it seemed just as unlikely the last couple months as well. Regardless, consensus is calling for a decline from last month’s 10.1 down to a 10.0, but the way things have been going in the EZ lately, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it slip below that expectation.
14:00 GMT Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision and Rate Statement
Not much is expected from the BoC this time around, but they have been more positive than the other commodity linked currencies. Since they cut interest rates back at the beginning of the year, they have sung a much more upbeat tone of recovery and waiting to see what effects their cut had on the economy. Since so little is expected, there could be an element of surprise, particularly if they signal danger on the horizon in their statement.
Thursday, May 28, 2015
1:30 GMT Australian Private Capital Expenditures (Q1)
The decline of 2.2% in last quarter’s PCE was a signal to many Australian investors that times were about to get tough. In reaction to that figure (along with other factors), the AUD fell against virtually every other currency for a couple of months, and prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates. Due to the RBA signaling that their cut may have only been a one-time event, the AUD has rebounded since, but another bad PCE could push it down once again.
8:30 GMT UK Total Business Investment (Q1)
Much like Australia’s PCE, Business Investment is vital to the growth of the UK economy. After struggling for the last couple quarters, posting back to back declines of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively, consensus is calling for an increase of 1.1% this time around. Forebodingly, consensus was anticipating increases during the quarters of decline as well. If this figure can rebound in to positive territory, the GBP may enjoy some more strength, continuing to make up what it lost ahead of the UK elections.
8:30 GMT UK Gross Domestic Product -- Second Estimate (Q1)
Significant revisions to the original GDP in the UK aren’t very common. The 0.3% first reading is only expected to rise to 0.4%, and likely won’t stray too much from that figure. Of course, whenever something is widely anticipated, anything deviating from that can create a lot of movement, so be wary of a larger revision than many anticipate.
14:00 GMT US Pending Home Sales (April)
The New Home Sales report will be released earlier in the week and is expected to rebound from a dismal report the previous month; however, if it misses again, Pending Home Sales could be something to watch like a hawk. Consensus is calling for a 0.8% increase, which would be on the lower end of what we have experienced thus far this year. Encouragingly, Building Permits and Housing Starts both surged this past week and could signal increased interest in purchasing homes and, therefore, pending orders on them.
23:30 GMT Japanese Consumer Price Index & Household Spending
These two reports haven’t been helping Japanese authorities make a positive argument for the policies they have introduced lately. The sales tax increase last year helped kick off twelve straight months of decline in Household Spending, and the QQE program that was supposed to spur inflation hasn’t done the trick as it continues to fall. Interestingly, consensus is calling for an increase in Household Spending this time around and would be a welcome sign that the economy is getting back to normal after the sustained downturn.
Friday, May 29, 2015
8:00 GMT Eurozone Private Loans (April)
One of the reasons the European Central Bank embarked on their QE program was to encourage small to medium enterprises (SME’s) to start borrowing money to grow. Private Loans are a great way to measure that activity, and last month was the first increase in this indicator since the August 2012 release. Consensus is calling for another increase this time around with 0.4% expected, and if it were achieved would be a very positive sign that the ECB’s program may be working.
12:30 GMT US Preliminary Gross Domestic Product (Q1)
The first read of GDP in the US for Q1 was downright terrible as the economy only grew 0.2%; at least that’s what we thought when it was released. Well, since that initial release, further figures have come to pass that signal that it might have been even worse. In fact, consensus is calling for a VERY negative revision down to -0.9%! The Fed has done their part in trying to explain away Q1 as a combination of transitory factors and weather related slowness, but a large decline along the lines of what consensus anticipates can’t be spun as positive no matter how hard we try. Along with the anticipation of doom and gloom though, if the figure stays flat, the USD could be the star of the show despite posting unimpressive numbers.