Yes, the entire year appears to have seen hares go extinct. In fact, sometimes I’ve felt that the tortoise has gone into hibernation too… However, yesterday developed pretty close to expectations and this bodes well for my general structures. I’m not sure today will see any hares start popping up from holes. In fact, it does look as if modest corrections are more likely. This should mean that – at some point – we will have to be observant to identify the correction endings. If there is any other alternative then we may just see some sideways consolidation. I doubt it for today, but Thursday’s Thanksgiving in the States has the greater chance of seeing a dull sideways day.
The Europeans are working pretty much to expectations, so I’ll not make any additional mention of these chaps. However, the Aussie is struggling a bit. Yesterday’s low was a tad deep and this needs to be observed carefully. I’d much prefer another rally but even if it does, I can’t see a strong follow-through.
The JPY pairs had different outcomes in terms of constructive movement. USD/JPY feinted a rally but then gave up to allow a marginally new corrective low. This low should not break else the downside could look more at risk. Until then the underlying picture should be bullish. Having said that, as I have mentioned for quite some months, there is a key 48-week cycle low looming over the next 2-3 weeks.
However, I can’t see particularly strong movement today because EUR/JPY has almost completed its decline and that should see gains develop – and should be driven more by USD/JPY. Therefore, the cross does suggest a two-way day.