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The Noose Has Been Set

ByIan Copsey
Published 07/06/2015, 01:05 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Inevitable is probably the most appropriate description of the referendum outcome. At the very least, I have been saying for weeks that the Euro is going to suffer, and suffer big. There is a minimum target for this next move and one I have been looking at for some weeks. The risk all along has come from an extremely untidy and ambiguous structure that has been really very tough to judge. However, this should be the last straw. Still, there will no doubt be some tricky parts along the way. There are a lot of emotions being bandied about that will still risk messy consolidations and potentially deep corrections that will have traditional Elliotticians counting up the number of extended waves and running corrections because they can’t fit the moves into their counts.

The odd-ball is USD/JPY that has been adopted as a safe-haven currency I have read. Well, there are supports and the eventual outcome will be decided a little lower than we are now. I have a very strong opinion on USD/JPY over the coming 6-12 months and we’ll have to see whether my supports hold or not… Of course, EUR/JPY has also suffered – doubly of course because both EUR/USD and USD/JPY have collapsed. Following last week’s massive gap lower it was always going to be a matter of how deep the correction would be. Well, we don’t have to be concerned about that now…

With all that ruckus, GBP/USD has maintained a gentlemanly stance, yes, losing out and will probably continue to keep its reserved nature intact. Jolly good chaps… As for the Aussie, it had already made a head start and therefore the trend continues.

The general theme is pretty well known but given the heighted tension do be wary of whipsaws.

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