AT long last… On the 9th February I suggested that we’d see an intermediate target in EUR/USD at 1.1180-1.1201. Nearly three weeks later it has finally achieved my forecast. However, I would have liked to not have that gawping great consolidation in the middle… The final upward correction from 1.1288 sealed the bearish fate, having failed to provide constructive foundation for an impulsive move higher.
That said, this move has inflicted damage elsewhere and now needs some adjustments to repair these developments. Firstly, USD/CHF looks as if it has shaken off the shock of the 17.5% collapse in terms of now actually beginning to correlate - in direction, rather than degree. Its break above the 0.9534 high does suggest further gains.
However, my forecast in GBP/USD went well awry, breaking below the key support – that then implied losses. This still needs some care, but I fancy that we’ll see a correction higher at the very least and I wouldn’t rule out new highs… It will need to be handled with kid gloves though…
Thankfully the Aussie went very well, holding just 4 points below my ideal support to then trigger a new high. The subsequent reversal following the 0.7912 high was only to be expected. In the larger picture it is in a halfway house. It could go higher… it could go lower. No doubting from the daily chart that there has been no confirmed reversal of the downtrend. Watch the next break.
And with a groan, USD/JPY failed to move lower. I can’t see a valid bullish impulsive structure so I don’t want to get too bullish – but there is a risk of a move above 118.93… Beyond that, I’d like to take a second look. However, even the gains it made did not stop EUR/JPY from jumping off a cliff. There’s probably no doubt it will go lower, but the question is when. Now - or after a deeper correction? I fancy the latter.