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Beans Trade Fear First Before Fact

Published 04/03/2016, 02:55 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

Weekly soybean export sales came in at 271 thousand metric tons down 34% from last week. Number one buyer China had a reduction of 110 thousand. In new crop year 2016/17, only 90 thousand was sold. Without China in buying large purchases, sales were poor across the board, old and new crop. The long awaited planted acreage report came out suggesting farmers will plant 82.2 million acres of beans. That is down 1% from last year. This leaves no margin for error in the growing season should it turn hot and dry. Some weather gurus have already projected that El Nino will bring a hot July through August in the Midwest.

Though demand remains seasonally weak as Brazil and Argentina overtake us on exports, beans need to build a weather premium into planting for protection against an uneven growing season. Corn on the other hand benefited from planting intentions. Planting is suggested to come in at 93.6 million acres up 6% from a year ago and the highest acres planted since 2013. This will give corn a little wiggle room since heavy rains in the delta states now are delaying planting. Corn will show a slowness to respond of too hot here and not enough rain over there rather than trading the fear of ominous growing season weather ahead.

Beans will trade fear first before fact. The long and short of this report is it is not what you plant but what you grow. Each week we move forward in the planting season weather becomes more important. Support on May beans lies at 9.00 then 8.84. Resistance is 9.16 then 9.30. Support on May corn lies at 3.42, resistance 3.54 then 3.60 then 3.70. March wheat support lies at 4.54 then 4.40, with resistances at 4.76 then 4.92 then 5.05.

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