The EUR Begs To Deceive…

That was a roller coaster that I hadn’t expected… Obviously, I was sucked into the downside in the euro, and wasn’t expecting the reversal. However, at this stage, I don’t think we’ll see a high above 1.1466 – or if we do, not by much.

To be honest, unless I am deceiving myself, EUR/USD looks pretty straightforward now. It’s USD/CHF and GBP/USD that hold more puzzling structures. GBP/USD does have potential to correct higher a little deeper, but has a relatively wide range in which it can stall. USD/CHF should be considered along with EUR/USD as to where it will stall. It was the additional new high yesterday that appears to have provided an illogical structure/outcome. Overall, I’m not looking for any substantial/excessive moves today, but I do think that by today – maybe tomorrow (barring some hellish sideways consolidation) – we’ll be back looking for the dollar to strengthen.

AUD/USD is stretching the limits. I’d like to make a firm statement, but there are some risks, and the key element is understanding where the upside will indicate a further push higher – or indeed, on the downside, where the bearish move resumes…

Following the early sharp drop in USD/JPY, it rebounded, but then has remained in a range. At this point, it looks like it has stalled in an in-between stage. I can see both sides of yesterday’s range being broken. Whether both will happen over the course of today or whether it will end up fiddling around indecisively is the bigger unknown.

As for EUR/JPY, the only thing I can assume is that the huge gap in the chart contained all the intermediate targets and corrections since, having seen the deep recovery, there is no other explanation… Overall, I still feel the dominant influencer here will be from EUR/USD… Therefore, retain the main focus on EUR/USD to identify the high…