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The Dumb Money Now Has A Record Short Position In Gold

ByTommy Humphreys
Published 08/04/2013, 12:23 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

This was the commitment of traders report for gold as of September 18th, 2012 showing a record small speculator net long position of nearly 60,000 contracts:
Gold_COT
This is the latest gold CoT report showing positions as of July 30th, 2013:
Gold COT - 2
The small specs have moved from a record net long position to a record net short position in the space of less than 10 months – to better illustrate the massive shift in ‘dumb money’ positioning during the past 10 months:
Gold_small_specs_chart
Just as risk was decidedly to the downside in September/October 2012 with small speculators holding a record net long position, risk is now clearly skewed to the upside as small speculators hold a record short position. CoT data is NOT a market timing tool but it certainly helps to highlight where the risk lies in a given market.

Bullish seasonality combined with ‘offsides’ dumb money positioning could be the right recipe for the next leg higher in gold:
Gold_Seasonality
Original post

Latest comments

No one will want gold as economy gets moving. Other investments pay dividends, gold is useless when things are going well and there is no sign of inflation, actually more risk of deflation.
Maybe you should realize gold is actually in a longterm bear market. Dumb money is investing money in a long position in a bear market.
maybe.....but the chart looks horrendous....markets are very over bought....I believe risks assets will move to cash....Gold looks very much like a risk asset to me here....
But what does reduction in SPDR's holding, from 1320 tons in late 2012 to just 918 tons today signifies ?. Gopal
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