The Current State Of The Market
These are the facts about the current state of the market. These are not opinions nor am I trying to imply what the next move is, the information below should give you an idea of what to maybe expect:
–The S&P 500 is down 4.96% from its all time high which it reached on 12/5/2014, the average correction since 2009 is 6.7% lasting on average 16.9 days. The average correction this year is 5.3% lasting 16 days, we are at 4.96%.
–The VIX is now higher than the future months, since 2010 the returns after this happening have been mostly positive and promising
–The VIX is now 39% above its 10 day moving average and up 76% this month, up 99% from the 12/5 close with the S&P 500 down only 4.96%.
–The average VIX spike since 2013 from the $12 level has been roughly 64% we are at 76% now.
–Telechart’s McClellan oscillator closed under -200, dead cat bounces start from these levels.
–The stocks that were holding up well finally got hit yesterday- Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS),Under Armour (NYSE:UA), and Zillow (NASDAQ:Z) to name a few. What got hit first, the oil names, they were the ones that closed up yesterday. FIFO, first in first out, (oil names are probably only good for a dead cat bounce).
–The Russell 2000 and the Microcaps are holding up better than the Dow and S&P 500 since we peaked on 12/5, many view that as a positive, some might say that the smaller names have less overseas exposure (perhaps Russia) so they are holding up better.
A proprietary indicator from Pradeep Bonde has spiked to a level that has led to bounces.
–Even with yesterday's reversal we had more stocks up from the open than down.
Disclaimer:The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.