Keeping to the Xmas theme, I can only say that the FOMC left a slew of wrapping paper that had been ripped from the gifts that Santa had brought. Scraps of paper, broken boxes and trampled rubbish left in the wake of a simple few words.
Has this changed the outlook? Perhaps from the point of view of what I had thought to be the count, but in the larger picture, I don’t think so. Clearly, we shall have to tread carefully from this point to confirm the larger Dollar decline will continue but from what I see of the Dollar Index, all that has occurred is an expanded flat. Thus, I think we can regroup and get back on with the job in question – planning the Dollar downside.
This should be a common theme across all major Dollar-currency pairs, more directly in the Europeans and USD/JPY. The Aussie is basically the same except I feel it has limited upside, basically in a correction. Yesterday’s development in the Antipodean was actually perfect all the way down to the 0.8138 low and back up to the 0.8235 high. The downside targets are not too much lower but we’re probably due a correction higher first. So as we start the day, we’re very much mid-range. Best watch the extremes of the anticipated range.
EUR/JPY took the consolidation route as suggested and this looks like extending for most, if not all, of today also. This tends to suggest that EUR/USD and USD/JPY will probably have a relatively high correlation but note the next larger directional move in the cross should be lower and thus it suggests USD/JPY will outpace EUR/USD.
It seems that, day-by-day, the market is getting trickier and trickier as we move into the final, very illiquid days to Xmas. Take even more care now…