Get 40% Off
🤯 This Tech Portfolio is up 29% YTD! Join Now to Get April’s Top PicksGet The Picks – Just 99 USD

Strong ADP Vindicates Fed

Published 07/01/2015, 11:01 AM
Updated 03/27/2022, 08:40 AM

ADP today printed at 237,000, raising expectations that tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls will easily reach the 230,000 job-gain target, following May’s 238,000. The numbers increase pressure on the FOMC to increase interest rates in September toward the 0.75% target for the end of the year. Unfortunately, job cuts have been particularly fierce, especially in the oil and manufacturing sectors. Layoffs annualized could rise by 42.70%, based on data from the Challenger Job Cuts report, with June showing 44,800 jobs lost compared to 41,000 in May. The data may tip unemployment from tomorrow’s expectations of 5.40% to the present level of 5.50%.

USD/CHF

A more pressing concern is weakness in the manufacturing sector, especially following today’s upward revision of the manufacturing PMI – still the lowest since 2013. In spite of optimism in the ISM report, official numbers portray a strong dollar impinging upon growth and a broader expansion of the economy. The USD has been rising strongly against the Swiss franc, the euro, the yen and the pound sterling, with gold dropping correspondingly toward 1-month lows in almost total disregard for the situation in Greece and China. Oil prices are retreating to 3-week lows. Dollar momentum is likely to continue well into the holiday session prior to July 4 celebrations, barring any surprises from tomorrow’s NFP.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.