Upcoming US Events for Today:
- Weekly Jobless Claims will be released at 8:30am. The market expects Initial Claims will show 330K versus 374K previous.
- The Philadelphia Fed Survey for October will be released at 10:00am. The market expects 15.0 versus 22.3 previous.
- Weekly Crude Inventories will be released at 11:00am.
Upcoming International Events for Today:
- Great Britain Retail Sales for September will be released at 4:30am EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 2.1%, consistent with the previous report.
- China GDP for the Third Quarter will be released at 10:00pm EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 7.8% versus an increase of 7.5% previous.
- China Industrial Production for September will be released at 10:00pm EST. The market expects a year-over-year increase of 10.2% versus an increase of 10.4% previous.
The Markets
Stocks surged higher on Wednesday as news emerged that Senate leaders reached a deal to end the government shutdown and raise the debt limit, avoiding a default at least until the next debt ceiling deadline on February 7th. The NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 pushed to new multi-year highs on the news while the S&P 500 inched closer to resistance presented at the all-time high of 1729; the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains the odd man out, remaining well off of the previous high as the benchmark attempts to regain lost ground. Struggles for the Dow may continue into Thursday’s session following earnings from the second largest constituent of the benchmark, IBM, which reported results after the closing bell that failed to impress investors. The company reported earnings of $3.99 per share, above the $3.96 per share estimate. However, a top-line miss sent shares lower in the after-hours as the company reported revenues of $23.7B, off of the $24.74B expectation. The stock traded lower by over 6% after the release, pulling down the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) by almost a third of a percent. Shares of IBM enter a period of seasonal strength at the end of October, trading higher through to the end of the period of seasonal strength for Technology in January. The stock has been trending lower since peaking in March of this year and the implied open at $175, based on after-hours trading, would break significant support around $182. The 200-day moving average of this stock looks poised to turn lower for the first time since emerging from the 2008/2009 recession, suggesting ongoing pressures for the stock may continue over the long-term. 
With Wednesday’s gain, the S&P 500 is pushing closer to resistance presented by the all-time high at 1729. Short-term momentum indicators are overbought following the substantial surge higher in anticipation of a debt deal in the US. Trendline resistance for many benchmarks is directly overhead. Rising wedge patterns are still in play as long as these levels of resistance hold, which implies that a bearish scenario is not off of the table just yet.
Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended marginally bullish at 0.93.
TSE Composite
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (TSX:HAC)
- Closing Market Value: $13.54 (up 0.07%)
- Closing NAV/Unit: $13.53 (down 0.08%)
* performance calculated on Closing NAV/Unit as provided by custodian 