The latest IMM data cover the week from 17 June to 23 June 2015
Investors on the whole became more bearish on both EUR and JPY in the week ending 23 June. Notably, net EUR positioning is now back in stretched short territory again - JPY still a little way from being stretched short on our metrics. The heightened uncertainty around Greece heading into this week suggests however that a cross such as EUR/JPY will most likely be in for a sell-off despite the already stretched positioning in this direction.
Overall long USD positioning rose last week and more CHF longs were added post the SNB meeting. That said, this will likely not deter the two safe-haven currencies from appreciation pressure in light of the Greek situation: the fact that USD positioning remains somewhat below the highs for this year suggests room for USD longs still, and, at the same time, CHF is vulnerable, in our view, as the SNB is now largely left without policy tools to fight Swissie buying.
Also, some fairly remarkable shifts in commodities and related currencies: a significant amount of longs in crude oil were liquidated and copper saw more shorts added. At the same time, the three major commodity currencies were shredded, notably leaving short positioning in NZD at very extreme levels. The RBNZ is now priced somewhat aggressively on rate cuts (close to two rates cuts within a year) but in a risk-off environment it will likely be difficult for the Kiwi to fight back near term.
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