- Monitoring purposes SPX: Sold long SPX on 9/16/16 at 2139.16 = gain .57%; Long SPX on 9/13/16 at 2127.02.
- Monitoring purposes Gold: Short GDX on 9/22/16 at 27.75.
- Long-Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28
On August 15, SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) made a high on 50 million shares, on August 23 that high was tested on 53.5 million shares. Normally to confirm a high the test is usually on 10% lighter volume. The August 23 test came on 7% increased in volume and suggests at some point that high will be tested again. Another helpful sign that a short term top is forming is for the ticks to close at exhaustion levels above +750. The three red vertical lines show when ticks reached +750 and in each case market is near a high. Signal is unclear here and therefore we will remain on the side lines.
Above is the VIX/VXV ratio. Since mid July, when this ratio reached .76 or lower the uptrend in the SPY was near and end. In four of these cases the market just trended sideways and two had decent declines. If this ratio manages to test the .76 range again will suggests the uptrend is near and end. The question will become if the next move will be down or sideways. Market is not giving a lot of information here which usually indicates a sideways market is in progress.
Bottom window is the 10-day average for the Up down Volume percent and next window up is the 10-day average for the Advance/Decline percent which is quicker than yesterday’s 18-day average for these indicators. Though it shows more wiggles, it useful in recognizing potential reversals sooner. Yesterday’s decline in GDX shows both Percent indicators in bearish territories and keeps the trend bearish for now. When a market finishes an Elliott five wave up, its common for the correction to retrace back to the previous Elliott wave 4 low, which is near 22 on GDX. There is also a gap near this range which adds strength to this support area. Short GDX on 9/22/16 at 27.75.