Some stalling points can be simple – clear and obvious and work like a dream. Others seem to engineer the most convoluted and perverse contortions. Having mentioned this it’s obvious that it’s the latter we’re going through. In terms of the outcome across all currency pairs I analyse, the result and subsequent reactions in terms of depth within the daily is very consistent. However, for now we have to navigate the hurdles that are being thrust in front of our face.
Dollar momentum remains really quite bullish, which is confounding me, and with that in place it makes the prospect of a suggesting a Dollar top difficult to judge at this point. As we start the week I can see risk of limited range trading and it will be the nature of this consolidation that may (or may not…) provide more information about momentum. The daily Price Equilibrium Clouds remain Dollar bullish in the Continental Europeans, USD/JPY and AUD/USD. It’s only GBP/USD that is showing any signs of bucking that trend. The 4-hour Price Equilibrium Clouds are also Dollar bullish, but perhaps decelerating while the hourly Clouds are seeing greater volatility around price. So this is a situation that needs to be assessed as the week starts.
If there is any currency pair that concerns, in terms of my expectations, then it’s GBP/USD that has struggled to make any further upside impact. It does still have a cushion that can act as a catch-all. That it appears to match with how I feel the Continental Europeans should develop is constructive but this issue over momentum does raise some dark clouds that suggest we need to remain alert.
So, all round, I can’t see excessive moves today unless some stronger catalyst suddenly develops. Trade carefully and err on the side of taking profits quickly.
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Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey
Published 09/29/2014, 12:21 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Softly, Softly, Catchee Monkey
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