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Scottish Independence? Yes or No. September 19, 2014

Published 09/19/2014, 03:00 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Looking at the economic calendar for the session on Friday, there’s really nothing to pay attention to beyond Canadian CPI. With that, most of the session is going to be about the Scottish Independence Vote, and we believe that it is a simple equation: if the Scottish stay, both the FTSE and the GBP/USD pair will go much higher. If they don’t, they will both fall drastically. With that being said, there is a whole lot of thinking to do with the trading session, other than trying to “front run” the vote. Honestly, we feel that’s going on already in the GBP/USD pair.

The GBP/USD pair broke above the gap that formed several sessions ago, and continues to climb. It appears that every time the market falls, buyers are coming in at higher levels to pick it up. With that it tells us that perhaps people are anticipating a no vote, and with that the relief will probably send this market much higher, especially considering that anybody who is voting for a yes vote will have to suddenly reverse their positions, thereby pushing the market even quicker to the upside.

The USD/CAD pair fell during the course of the session on Thursday, but we feel that it’s only a matter of time before we get support to push this market higher. The Canadian CPI month over month numbers could be soft enough in order to pushes market back up above the 1.10 handle, which for us sends it looking for the 1.11 level, and then the 1.12 level.

USD/CAD

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