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Santa's Rally: A Look Back

Published 12/11/2013, 02:37 PM

Eleven days into December and the S&P 500 is down 1.1% month to date. That’s unfamiliar territory for the index, which is usually in the heart of a Santa Claus rally around this time of year. Even in 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis, equities found a way to bounce in December, so a negative close this year would be something of a rarity.

A Look Back
In the 56 years since 1957, the index has only been negative 15 times in December. The last time equities fell in December was in 2007, just as the economy entered recession. That may sound foreboding, but in actuality there doesn’t seem to be much correlation between a bad December and a bad ensuing year. In fact, the year after a bad December has averaged a double digit gain, and a negative December has only preceded a negative year three times.
The S&P 500 Over Time

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