The days when the Fed – and in this case, also the BOJ – make an announcement to show they that don’t know how to resolve the mess they’ve got themselves into, just while I’m going through the daily analysis, are always difficult times.
Whips, hidden corrections (those that come in the tick charts and not even the 1-minute charts) create a lot of problems that take time to research before the deadline to release the report. Thankfully, for the most part, I identified the basic pattern of what should happen.
The one I didn’t consider was EUR/JPY, mainly because of the bearish momentum in USD/JPY. However, I realise now that I should have realised that the whole market appears to be in one mind in terms of structure.
So, apart from hidden waves in the tick charts that screwed up one or two projections, I was happy enough with yesterday’s outcome. Even then, there’s a slight imbalance between pairs that do not have the same structure, particularly in USD/CHF and to a certain extent GBP/USD.
This tends to suggest that we’re more likely to see fairly strong swings for a while but should compensate for the relative structures within the range of pairs. Some will breeze through the following moves while others will need deep Wave b/iii’s to match the extent of pullbacks to keep all pairs relatively correlated.
Therefore, I feel today is going go through a rather rocky day, maybe even with complex corrections, that will have the market being quite frustrating.
There is still some concern in USD/JPY. It did recover but hardly with any robustness but has provided the basis for an impulsive move but still needs one or two developments to be able to feel more confident of the outcome I have been expecting for far too long…
Keep trades short in duration.