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Research Commodities:OPEC To Maintain Current Strategy At 5 June Meeting

ByDanske Markets
Published 06/02/2015, 02:47 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Major forecasters have lowered their Q4 15 forecasts for non-OPEC supply and in particular supply from the Americas markedly over the past six months. In the same period, forecasts for world demand have been revised up, increasing the expected demand for OPEC oil.

We expect OPEC to maintain its 30mb/d output target at the 5 June meeting and continue to focus on preserving its share of the world oil market. We see limited room for it to raise production much above the current 31mb/d level.

We stick to our current forecast for Brent crude to average USD76/bbl in Q4 and USD78/bbl next year, which would transpire into equivalent price increases for major oil products. We recommend clients on the consumer side hedge exposure in H2 15 and 2016 at current levels.

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Latest comments

Saudi Aramco signed 3 low rate drilling contracts with Hercules Offshore, Inc. It is an evidence that OPEC won't cut production, but remain or increase production at low costs. Rig dayrates are low, producers are taking this advantages to increase production, oil won't be expensive in 2015 and 2016.
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