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Quarterly Revenue Forecasts For S&P 500 Companies

ByEvgeny Ilyukhin
Published 06/27/2016, 04:24 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:32 AM

This article aims to provide forecasts for quarterly revenues of the S&P 500 companies (except Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 100, Nasdaq 100 companies - see previous articles) for June 2016.

The S&P 500 Index is the stock market index of 500 large companies listed on the NYSE or NASDAQ. It is assumed that there is a strong relationship between financial announcements and stock returns, especially in case of revenue/earnings surprises. One can use forecasted trends and values to make proper investment/trading decisions prior to announcements dates.

The quarterly values in million US dollars over the period from March 2015 to March 2016 (Sharadar database) and forecasted period (author’s calculations) for June 2016 are presented in tables below. Some companies were excluded because of insufficient data.

Notice that quarterly data for Ameriprise Financial Inc (NYSE:AMP), Apache Corp (NYSE:APA), Eagle Materials Inc (NYSE:EXP), Hess Corp (NYSE:HES), Northern Trust Corp (NASDAQ:NTRS), Snap-on Inc (NYSE:SNA) and Southwestern Energy Co (NYSE:SWN) can be different from other data sources.

Forecasts are projected with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model based on relevant quarterly data (March 2003 - March 2016). Companies are placed in alphabetical order. Forecasted values: increase in green; decrease in red.

The notable revenue increases are expected for Tegna Inc (NYSE:TGNA) (87.08%), Newfield Exploration Co (NYSE:NFX) (65.14%), Hess Corp (59.82%), Murphy Oil Corp (NYSE:MUR) (59.30%), HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) (51.54%), Baxter International Inc (NYSE:BAX) (48.29%), ConAgra Foods Inc (NYSE:CAG) (39.84%), CF Industries Holdings Inc (NYSE:CF) (38.55%), Southwestern Energy Co (SWN) (37.42%), Motorola Solutions Inc (NYSE:MSI) (36.13%), Tesoro Corp (NYSE:TSO) (34.68%), Pinnacle West Capital Corp (NYSE:PNW) (34.56%), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN) (33.65%), Concho Resources Inc (NYSE:CXO) (32.39%), Becton Dickinson & Co (NYSE:BDX) (31.79%), The Mosaic Co (NYSE:MOS) (31.78%), Garmin Ltd (NASDAQ:GRMN) (30.61%) and The Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) (30.49%).

Sales of AGL Resources Inc (NYSE:GAS) (-59.82%), Best Buy Co Inc (NYSE:BBY) (-37.72%), CenterPoint Energy Inc (NYSE:CNP) (-36.90%), NiSource Inc (NYSE:NI) (-34.03%), CMS Energy Corp (NYSE:CMS) (-32.70%) and Spectra Energy Corp (NYSE:SE) (-31.14%) will likely drop in the second quarter.

Generally, S&P 500 companies show positive changes in their revenues.
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