Quarter-End Driving USD Or Something More?

Talking Points

• EUR/USD nearing important downside pivots
• USD/CAD approaching former highs
• Greenback closing in on important retracement level

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD has come under steady pressure since failing last week at Gann resistance in the 1.1040 area
• Our near-term trend bias will turn negative on the euro on a close below 1.0760
• A move back through 1.0900 is needed to trigger a renewed push higher in the exchange rate
• A minor turn window is eyed on Thursday

EUR/USD Strategy: Square

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr

• USD/CAD has traded steadily higher after finding support at a key trendline in the 1.2425 area
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in USD/CAD while above 1.2475
• A close above 1.2780 is needed to confirm that a new leg higher is underway in Funds
• A very minor turn window is eyed Thursday
• A close under 1.2475 would turn us negative on USD/CAD

USD/CAD Strategy: Square

Focus Chart of the Day: FXCM US Dollar Index

The last few days of the quarter are always interesting (or are supposed to be) in the FX markets especially when there has been a strong trend over the preceding three months. The end of Q12015 is so far living up to the hype as there has been a decent run into USD over the last 24 hours or so. The real test for the Buck will probably come after the 4pm BST WMR and whether it can hold onto these gains and continue to take out resistance levels. The 78.6% retracement of the month-to-date range near 12,100 in the FXCM US Dollar Index looks like an important pivot with traction above this level needed to confirm that that the broader trend is indeed trying to re-assert itself. A failure there followed by weakness under 11,980 would keep the door open to a further possible correction in the dollar.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com.