USD/MXN: The Timing Of It All

Talking Points

• EUR/USD fails again at 50-day moving average
• NZD/USD nearing key support
• Timing relationship at last week’s reversal in USD/MXN

Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance

Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

• EUR/USD: a sharp correction higher on Friday failed again near the 50-day moving average
• Our near-term trend bias is higher in the exchange rate while above 1.0920
• A daily close above 1.1100 is needed to re-instill upside mometum into the euro
• A very minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
• A close below 1.0920 is needed to turn us negative again on EUR/USD

EUR/USD Strategy: Square.

Price & Time Analysis: NZD/USD

ChartPrepared by Kristian Kerr

• NZD/USD has come under renewed pressure following last week’s failed push above .6700
• Our near-term trend bias is negative while below .6735
• A close back under .6700 is needed to re-instill downside momentum in the rate
• A minor turn window is eyed tomorrow
• A daily close over .6735 would turn us positive on the Kiwi

NZD/USD Strategy: Like the short side while below .6735

Focus Chart of the Day: USD/MXN

The price action in USD/MXN needs to be watched closely. Last week’s reversal on the back of Banxico’s decision to increase FX intervention has left a top of potentially some importance on the daily and weekly charts. What makes the reversal particularly interesting is the timing of it all as it occurred right around a Pi cycle of 3.14 years from the 2012 high in USD/MXN. (The closing high for the month actually came within one trading day of the May 2012 high) If a more important and drawn out correction against the primary trend is playing out here then 16.4900 should easily hold on any backtest and ideally even 16.2900. Weakness under 16.0000 would help signal that another leg lower is underway.

--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com