- The euro and the stock markets at a year-high
- A rally which is not only technical …
The euro and the stock markets ended the year 2012 on a strong note. If the predictive power attributed to the markets proves true, this augurs well for 2013. The single currency has gained nearly 10% against the dollar over the past five months. At USD 1.33 on 19 December, the euro is close to last January’s highs. The Eurostoxx index is also at a peak. At 366 points on 19 December, it has gained 26% since early June, the starting point of the stock market rally. This is twice the performance of the S&P500.
What’s behind this rally? Mainly Frankfurt (the ECB) and Brussels (the European Union). By pledging the irreversibility of the euro on 26 July, followed by the announcement of a mechanism for unlimited (but conditional) purchases of the debt instruments of EMU member countries, ECB president Mario Draghi is largely responsible for turning things around.
The European heads of state and governments also made their contribution by showing proof of solidarity: banking union project (29 June); a more relaxed timetable for reducing public deficits in Portugal and Spain; a EUR100bn credit line to recapitalise Spanish banks; and the rescheduling of Greek debt (27 November), which was heralded by a 6-notch upgrade of its sovereign rating on 18 December. 
While its existence was threatened a year ago, the EMU has found the means to strengthen its bonds again. However, the advances, though major, are not sufficient (the banking union is still far away, and so are Eurobonds…). The biggest error for 2013 would be to content oneself with the latest.
By Jean-Luc PROUTAT