NZ GDP q/q is a quarterly release and may impact the market greatly, but since it is being released after the FOMC Press Conference, I’d be very selective with this trade and will only take it if we get to our deviation and not in conflict with the US Fed rate decision.
5:45pm NZ GDP q/q Forecast 0.8% Previous 1.0%
DEVIATION: 0.3% (BUY NZD 1.1% / SELL NZD 0.5%)
The Trade Plan
The expected consensus number is 0.8%, and the safe deviation is 0.3%, in the event it is hit, we should see market move 40 pips within the hour.
We’ll be looking to BUY the NZD if the release is at 0.9% or better, or we’ll SELL NZD is the release is 0.3% or worse. We’ll be using our standard after-news retracement trading method.
I’d recommend to use the Recommended Pairs from above as they are based on my CSM, which should provide the best combination of currency pairs to trade based on better/worse news… of course, you can also trade the default pair: NZD/USD.
Outlook Score
Outlook score is derived from market sentiment, focus, and economic indicators for the currency. It represents the long-term trend of the currency and its market perception. In short, a strong Outlook Score means more long-term demand for the currency, and a weak Outlook Score is the opposite.
Definition
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. GDP is the broadest measure of activity and the primary gauge of the economy’s health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. More importantly, the central bank is more likely to raise interest rates in the face of a strong and growing economy. The combination of these effects can have a large impact on the demand for the nation’s currency.”