A snapshot view of yesterday’s New York - London session with technical notes
US Unemployment at an 8-year low at 284k vs 310k expected; Flash PMI missed expectations but still healthy at 56.3 and new home sales also missed the mark at 406k vs 485k expected but the market was more focussed on the positive employment data. Yellen remarked that interest rates will likely be moved higher sooner if the jobs market continues to deliver.
Europe treated to a bout of positive data with the majority of German, French and Eurozone manufacturing and services data all beating expectations. Only French manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations, coming in at 47.6 and at a 7th month low and 3rd consecutive decline. EUR/USD found support at 1.345 support and closed the day with a Rikshaw Man Doji.
British Pound continued its decline following less-then-expected Retail sales at 0.1% vs 0.2% forecast; Breaking below 1.70 and reaching a 4-week low Cable closed on the 50-day MA.
IMF lowers global growth forecast to 3.4%, down from 3.7%, citing 'negative surprises' from China and the US alongside geoploitical risks from Middle East and Ukraine
FOREX:
- DXY
Sitting at 6-week highs and creeping up the upper-channel resistance; Potential to test 81 this week
Bearish inside day (open to close) and back below 0.945; Likely to test 0.94 this week; below 0.940 is a near-term bearish signal for next week
Rikshaw Man Doji tested 35-week lows; Potential for mild bullish retracement but resistance at 1.349 and 1.350 is likely to attract bearish attention
Most bearish close in 41 sessions; Found support at 50-day MA but intraday bias is bearish below 1.70
Continued to range sideways awaiting catalyst; Bias is for bullish breakout above bearish trendline form 2012 highs; Considering buys above 1.07
Most bullish close in 15 sessions; Finds resistance at 50-day MA and Monthly Pivot; However intraday is bullish above 101.65
Most bearish close this year; Bearish bias and considering sell signals below 0.856 resistance; Targeting 0.88525