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Norwegian Oil Investment Survey, Risk Of Political Uncertainty In Sweden

Published 12/01/2014, 03:17 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

On Wednesday 3 December, the Swedish Riksdag will vote on the budget bill. The Sweden Democrats (SD) have so far refused to declare how they will vote - abstain, or support the opposition's (Alliance) alternative bill. If the latter is the case, the government would resign.

According to the media, SD may reveal how it will proceed on Tuesday.

Turning to economic data, it is only Monday (Manufacturing PMI at 08:30 CET) and Friday (09:30 CET), when industrial data (production, orders) is published that are of any interest.

In Norway, the week's most important release for many will be the Q4 oil investment survey. Remember, the survey was conducted before the recent USD10 per barrel drop in the oil price after last week's OPEC meeting.

The week also brings PMI data for November and industrial production for October.

The Danish central bank, Nationalbanken, will publish its currency reserves data for November. The EUR/DKK cross has remained below the central parity rate in November, trading below 7.440 at times for the first time in more than two years. The market will therefore be interested to see whether the central bank has needed to intervene for a third successive month or not.

The fixed income market has almost given up on Nationalbanken lowering rates over the coming one or two months. If the numbers show intervention, we believe that rate cut speculation will return to the market. Normally, it would take something like DKK15bn intervention before the policy rate will be changed.

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