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No Signs Of Global Slowdown In September Foreign Trade Data‏

Published 10/14/2014, 12:39 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

China's export growth in September accelerated more than expected to 15.3% y/y (consensus: 12.0% y/y, DBM: 13.6% y/y) from 9.4% y/y in August. Import growth also accelerated more than expected to 7.0% y/y (consensus: -2.0% y/y, DBM: -2.5% y/y) from -2.5% y/y in August.

It should be remembered that the foreign trade data is very volatile and in September it was probably distorted by a calendar impact. In September, there were 22 working days compared with only 21 in September last year. On the other hand, there was one less working day in August compared with last year. Hence the calendar distortions probably boosted the year-on-year growth rates in September but weighed on the year-on-year growth rate in August. The very weak August hard data in China probably exaggerated the weakness in the Chinese economy and the hard data for September will probably tend to surprise on the upside because of the calendar distortion.

Stronger exports are currently the bright spot in the Chinese economy. While the September data probably exaggerates the strength in China's exports, data for recent months nonetheless suggests that China's export growth is currently in the double-digits. This is also consistent with the development in export orders in the HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI. The improvement in China's exports has recently been driven in particular by improving exports to the US and the ASEAN region, but exports to Europe have also continued to improve. Exports to Japan have deteriorated.

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