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No Hard-Landing For China's Economy For Now

Published 10/21/2014, 02:39 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

China's GDP growth is gradually slowing as expected - at least according to the official reports.

China GDP (YoY)

Growth is now at the lowest level since 2009, but so far the Bloomberg China GDP Tracker forecast of a sharp correction this quarter has not materialized.


Bloomberg China GDP Tracker vs China GDPChina Industrial Production (YoY)

In fact, the nation's industrial production growth, which continues to decline, came in better than expected.


Fixed asset investment growth shows a similar slowing pattern - now growing at 16% per year.

China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)


Have the various hard-landing predictions (many focused on the worrisome credit expansion in China) been too draconian? From a number of recent indicators it seems that China's economic growth is gradually grinding lower - perhaps toward something like a 4% per annum in 2020 (see report). Unless of course China's official economic reports are completely flawed - which is always a possibility.

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