KEY DATA RELEASES TODAY (BST) :
11:00 GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 4 v 0
OVERNIGHT:
USD trades on the back foot after another round of poor US data (durable goods this time), and hence setting up market expectations for a poor Q1 GDP print and a doveish tilt to the FOMC statement.
USD/JPY trades back below the familiar 119 handle, anticipate the pair to remain content sitting inside the 118120 range going into this week’s risk events, interbank reports suggest real money still noted buyers in dips. 119.20/30 should now provide some resistance, while support remains at 118.80 and 50 initially.
Very quiet EUR/USD Asian session as players remain lightly positioned well aware what lies ahead later in the week from event perspective opportunities. For now would expect short term price sentiment to remain range bound and continue to be reflected by Greek developments hitting the wires with little in way of economic releases today. Initial resistance comes in at 1.0900 for now with 1.0820 and 1.0760 providing pivotal support levels.
Still no sign of pre-election jitters in the GBP market, GBP/USD surges above the 1.5080/1.5100 resistance as US data continues to disappoint. The path of least resistance for the week remains higher, and a close above 1.5200 should only encourage cable bulls ( doubt there are many of them at the moment). .
PRICE ACTION OVERVIEW:
EUR: While 1.0760 contains downside expect 1.09 test en rout to fourth attempt at 1.10, below 1.0740 refocuses on 1.0620
GBP: While 1.5080/60 contains downside reactions target 1.5350 equality corrective objective
JPY: While 118.70/90 contains downside target 121.00 en route to retest of year to date highs, only below 118.30 concerns bullish view
CAD: While 124.50 contains upside target 120 test
AUD: While .7860/80 contains upside anticipate third test of key .7550 failure here opens the bearish target of .72, above .7880 alleviates downside pressure
KEY TRADES:
| FX Pair | Short Term | Position/Date | Entry Level | Target | Stop | Comments |
| EUR/USD | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
| GBP/USD | Bullish | Await new signal | ||||
| USD/JPY | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
| USD/CAD | Neutral | Await new signal | ||||
| AUD/USD | Neutral | Await new signal |
ANALYSIS:
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- 1.0860/80 resistance remains under pressure a break here would likely target a fourth attempt at 1.10 offers, targeting 1.1150 equality corrective target beyond.
- Order Flow indicators; OBV consolidating above lows, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from below
- Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators to set shorts against 1.12
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- 1.5130/60 resistance gives way and as such the immediate bearish bias has been invalidated, focus now shifts towards an equality corrective target toward 1.5350, intraday 1.5080 to act as initial support for next leg higher
- Order Flow indicators; OBV consolidates recent gains, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but stalling at elevated levels
- Monitoring price action and Order Flow for shorts targeting 1.45 initially and 1.42 in extension against 1.5350/1.54
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
- 119.30 gives way opens the potential for another run at 118.30 bids as range trade persists, trading toward the lower end of the recent range so caution shorting into the 118.80/60 zone
- Order Flow indicators; OBV consolidates below highs, Linear Regression bearish, Psychology pierces midpoint from below but lack momentum
- Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators to set longs against 118 targeting 124
USD/CAD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
- 124.50 is near term resistance while this area caps upside reaction expect a retest of 120 from above, below 120 opens 117.50 and forewarns a more significant top in place.
- Daily Order Flow indicators; OBV ticking down from consolidation, Linear Regression and Psychology rejected at midpoint tests form below
- Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators to reset long positions targeting 1.30
AUD/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Neutral - Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
- .77 to .7850 range trade persists, while .77 contains downside reactions intraday expect further upside pressure, failure at .77 opens fourth test of key .7550
- Order Flow indicators; OBV consolidating recent gains, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish
- Monitoring price action and Order Flow indicators to set shorts targeting .72 against .8050
