Market Commentary
Upbeat data from the US bolstered the case for a US interest rate hike this year, further supporting USD strength. Without any catalyst this morning, EUR/USD trades towards the higher end of recent range range, holding above yesterday’s low of 1.0864. Today marks the start of a three day G7 finance ministers meeting in Germany and any news of positive Greece debt discussion could bring EUR/USD back to 1.1035 major resistance level. To the downside, 1.0825 and 1.0730 next support levels respectively.
USD out performance has put pressure on GBP, and cable is attempting to close the gap from the spike during the national elections at the beginning of the month (1.5250 to 1.5440). Anticipate the USD to be the mover of the pair, as domestic catalysts at the moment are absent (ahead of the GDP 2nd release tomorrow)
US data overnight has kept USD/JPY supported, printing a high of 123.33. Market remains bullish with a buy a dip mood in anticipation of looming exporter and profit taking interests. 122.80 and 122.40 are initial levels of support, with 122.05 being the key. Topside 123.50 and 124.14 (2007 high) initially. Players are wary of verbal intervention from various Japanese officials especially after IMF comments last week, ahead of the G7 finance ministers meeting starting today and amidst the ongoing TPP negotiations
EUR/USD Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
Decline extends while 1.1030/50 caps upside expect test of 1.08 equality corrective target before attempting a base for recovery
Order Flow indicators; OBV down to sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bearish but attempting retest of midpoint from below
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.08 or 1.105
GBP/USD: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish
While 1.5550 caps intraday upside reactions expect a test of 1.53 equality corrective target
Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology piercing midpoints from above
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 1.53 or 1.5550
USD/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bullish
While 122 previous resistance now acts as support bulls now focus on 124 target. Below 121 concerns near term bullish bias.
Order Flow indicators; OBV up to sideways, Linear Regression and Psychology bullish but lacking momentum
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a test of 124 or 122
EUR/JPY: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks) Bearish.
134/133 continues to provide support expect retest of highs and potential 138 foray. Below 133 expect 130/131 base test.
Daily Order Flow indicators; OBV sideways to up, Linear Regression and Psychology pierce midpoints from above but are stalling and attempting to recapture midpoints from below
Monitoring intraday price action and Order Flow indicators on a retest of 133 or 137/138
