Currencies
EUR/USD – was trading down for most of the day, and came close to the support around the 1.1117 level, before seeing a sharp turnaround. This has been caused by a shift in sentiment regarding the Brexit vote in the aftermath of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox.
USD/JPY – is continuing to trade down after the BOJ decision not to change its policy. The severe strengthening of the JPY is unlikely to be good for the Japanese economy, and as mentioned before as well, we could see an intervention by the BOJ to weaken the JPY, although the chances of this happening have diminished somewhat after the G7 meeting a few weeks ago.
GBP/USD – the GBP weakened to the lowest level since April and was close to breaking below the 1.40 level. However the assassination of British MP Jo Cox caused the GBP to strengthen. This is because she was against a Brexit and the assassination could result in people becoming more sympathetic towards her views. Another possibility is that the referendum will be postponed, although that appears to be less likely. In any case the campaigns have been suspended for now.
Indices
DAX 30 – saw a large correction and this had also everything to do with the change in sentiment with regards to the Brexit.
S&P 500 – also moved up for the same reasons, but was held back by the resistance around the 2078 level.
Commodities
Gold – reached the highest level in almost 2 years, but also saw a large drop after the Brexit campaign was suspended, towards the support around the 1276 level. This is a good example of the impact of what news can have on the markets, even when it is not directly linked to the economy.
Oil – dropped sharply yesterday, as we managed to break below the lower 47 level which has functioned as a support area. After breaking below the 47 level, we quickly moved to break below the 46 level as well, although it was unable to sustain these levels for the moment. We could see a test of the 47+ levels from below and if that fails, we can expect to move further down to the support around the 44.5 level.
By Shawn Koopman