Market Overview

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend. One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria....

Housing dominated this past week's news. On Tuesday, the Census reported that housing permits were down .4% M/M and 2.3% Y/Y. The same report showed housing starts decreased 5.8% M/M and rose .9% Y/Y....

Key Points: Japanese CPI y/y forecast at -0.5% y/y 100.00 handle forming as key battleground. Watch for US Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures. Last week continued the slide for the USD/JPY as the...

No single variable or statistic provides clear insight into the future direction of the economy or stock market. When a data point does not fit one's narrative though, justification to eliminate it...

The major central banks have placed their markers and have moved to stage left. There is the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead. The main focus for most...

The week ended with some surprises that I hadn’t anticipated. For the most part, they appear to have been rather stretched waves that normally don’t occur – but can still be valid....

The media spread US Census' good news: Median household income in the United States was $56,516 in 2015, an increase in real terms of 5.2 percent from the 2014 median of $53,718. This is the first...

Canada – The consumer price index dropped 0.2% in August, allowing the year-on-year inflation rate to decline two ticks to 1.1%. In seasonally adjusted terms, CPI was down 0.1% as higher prices...

A Litany of Failures It was widely expected that the BoJ would announce something this week, after it promised to perform a comprehensive review of its monetary policy. It certainly did deliver a...

BoJ adopts new method Credibility is crucial This is (probably) the reason behind the co-existence of two redundant targets At its previous meeting at the end of July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ)...

The Fed decided to leave monetary policy unchanged. It however clearly announced a hike is more than likely before year-end. At the same time, FOMC members lowered the likely path and magnitude of...

At the ECB’s September monetary policy meeting, M. Draghi announced the creation of committees “to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of [the] purchase...

In order to boost inflation expectations and inflation, the Bank of Japan has made two changes to its monetary policy. By introducing yield targeting, it creates more flexibility than would a QE...

The government maintained its growth forecast of 1.5% for both 2016 and 2017. This seems like an optimistic outlook given the expected dissipation of certain growth support factors while new...