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UK Services Purchasing Manager Index is a leading indicator and should cause plenty of market reaction if there is a surprise. As usual, with Brexit still hanging, I would caution holding any...
The latest IMM data cover the week from 22 to 29 November 2016 To read the entire report Please click on the pdf File Below
In Sweden , the week ahead is about industrial data (Wednesday, at 09:30 CET) and not much else. Given positive survey data and the optimistic forward-looking content in the GDP release we expect...
Inflation continues to rise gradually, driven by the contribution of energy prices, now slightly positive. Core inflation continues to trend slightly downwards. We expect these trends to continue in...
Portugal’s budget proposal, presented in mid-October, considers that it responds to the EC’s demands, by aiming to reduce the budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP this year. Moreover the...
In the US, the main release today is the ISM non-manufacturing index for November. We think the index is at a reasonable level and expect only a small increase from 54.8 to 55.0. The Fed's Dudley and...
Labor force participation rate has been dropping steadily since 2000 (see chart). Central planners can't explain it or refuse to touch it. They assure those affected not to worry. Those with a job...
US news was very positive this week. The second estimate for 3rd quarter GDP increased .3% to 3.2%. Personal incomes and spending continued to rise as well. Durable goods, which have been weak due to...
Last week’s most important international economic development was OPEC’s agreement to limit production. As with all OPEC agreements, there are many details that could potentially unravel...
Canadian dollar surged broadly last week as the highly anticipated OPEC meeting finally delivered an agreement on production cut. WTI crude oil surged 51.80 and took the Loonie, as well as stocks...
There were significant moves in interest rates and currencies last month. The drama was primarily spurred by the solidification of expectations of a Fed hike in the middle of this month and the...
Canada – GDP expanded at an annualized pace of 3.5% in 2016Q3 after an upward revision to the first half of the year. In light of these results, we raised our 2016 Canadian GDP growth forecast...
EM remains a mixed bag. Despite the negative connotations of a rising US rate environment, EM gathered an element of stability last week as the dollar consolidated its recent gains. Rising commodity...
Wow. According to the headlines, the US economy has surged to 3.2% growth in the third quarter. Hope you are feeling it! Follow up: To begin, I hate the quarter-over-quarter methodology which produces...
Assume you’ve never heard of Michael Lewis but you’ve read a slew of books and papers about behavioral finance. You might decide to skip this one, figuring it’s more of the same. Put...