Market Overview

The week ahead is the busiest week of the first quarter. It sees four major central meetings, including the Federal Reserve which is likely to raise rates for the second time in four months. The Dutch...

This week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole included a little Payrolls/Wages related economic discussion before moving on to the usual coverage of stock markets, commodities, precious metals, bonds,...

“I don’t understand you,’ said Alice. ‘It’s dreadfully confusing!’‘That’s the effect of living backwards,’ the Queen said kindly: ‘it always...

According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt has grown to a staggering grand total of 152 trillion dollars. Other estimates put that figure closer to 200 trillion dollars, but for the...

Central Bank CacophonyIt will a busy Central Bank week this week, with the Fed, BoJ and BOE all on tap. The markets are fully subscribing to a March Fed rate hike, so the focus will be on the dot...

Vehicle Sales were released last week at 17.47mil SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Employment reports released today were higher than the average forecast. The Household Survey Employment...

EM FX ended last week on a firm note despite the strong U.S. jobs data, with the dollar succumbing to some “buy the rumor, sell the fact” price action. We think the dollar should recover...

The Non Farm Payroll release was pretty subdued. It caused a mild issue, particularly in EUR/USD and USD/CHF, but actually helped out by pointing out an error I made back in early February. When going...

CANADA: Employment jumped 15K in February according to the Labour Force Survey. As a result, the jobless rate dropped two ticks at 6.6% with the participation rate dropping to 65.8% from 65.9%. The...

In our view, the jobs report for February was solid and in line with expectations after the strong ADP jobs report released on Wednesday.The jobs report removes the last obstacle for a Fed hike on...

Even as flagging, high-profile hedge funds are looking for salvation in the quant world, academics are raising a red flag. Perhaps we’ve gone overboard in our efforts to reduce all financial...

Market movers ahead We expect the Fed to hike the target range by 25bp to 0.75-1.00% on Wednesday. The US debt limit suspension expires on Wednesday. The Dutch general election takes place on...

Note: This update incorporates the latest Z.1 data release, which includes Q4 2016.Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren...

Note: With yesterday's release of the Federal Reserve's Z.1. Financial Accounts of the United States for Q4 2016, we have updated this commentary to incorporate the latest data. Let's take a long-term...