Market Outlook: Euro Under Pressure

EUR/USD

The euro remains under pressure and left lower tops at 1.3639, after fresh acceleration lower probes levels below 1.3585/74 supports. The way towards 1.35 base and key short-term support, is now open, as fresh weakness retraced nearly 76.4% of 1.3502/1.3699 rally. Bearish near-term studies support the notion, as daily tools are building bearish momentum for eventual completion of 1.3502/1.3699 phase, with probe below 1.35 base / main bull trendline off 1.2042 and return to another pivotal short-term support at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low, to complete larger, Feb/May 1.3475/1.3699 ascend. Corrective rallies should find ideal cap at previous supports at 1.3585 and 1.3600, while only sustained break above the latter would delay immediate bears.

Resistance: 1.3574; 1.3585; 1.3600; 1.3625
Support: 1.3556; 1.3534; 1.3511; 1.3502



EUR/JPY

Near-term structure weakens, as recovery attempts off 137.48 low, ran out of steam at 134.40 zone and the price dipped back below 138 handle. Lower timeframes studies turned negative and bring downside risk in play, as yesterday’s inside day candle suggests change in near-term direction. Return to 137.48 to complete near-term corrective phase and likely to resume larger downtrend towards near-term target at 136.21, for eventual completion of 136.21/143.78 ascend. Negative daily studies support this scenario.

Resistance: 138.07; 138.43; 138.74; 138.81
Support: 137.66; 137.48; 137.00; 136.74



GBP/USD

Cable rallied sharply and escaped from dangerous territory, neutralizing downside risk, which started to build up on a break below 1.71 handle. Strong rebound recovered all near-term losses and posted marginally higher high at 1.7189. This brought near-term focus back to the upside levels, for resumption of larger uptrend, being paused by 1.7177/1.7057 corrective phase, with reversal signaled by bullish engulfing pattern. Positively aligned near-term studies and already bullish larger picture, support the notion, however, close above near-term tops is required to confirm.

Resistance: 1.7166; 1.7177; 1.7189; 1.7200
Support: 1.7123; 1.7108; 1.7095; 1.7068



USD/JPY

The pair continues to move higher, on near-term corrective rally off fresh low at 101.05, posted on 05 July. Fresh extensions retraced over 76.4% of 102.25/101.05 descend, with positive near-term studies being supportive. The price action approaches the lower boundary, previous 09 July high / 200 SMA, of pivotal 101.85/102.00 resistance zone, break of which is required to confirm recovery. However, caution is still required as daily studies are weak and risk of lower top formation will persist while 102 barrier stays intact. Otherwise, break here to open next pivotal barriers at 102.25/35.

Resistance: 101.75; 101.85; 102.00; 102.25
Support: 101.62; 101.42; 101.37; 101.20



AUD/USD

Near-term recovery attempt lost traction after spiking at 0.9454 and subsequent weakness nearly fully retraced 0.9327/0.9454 upleg. This brought immediate risk at key 0.9320 higher platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9209/0.9503 ascend, with break here to trigger fresh extension of reversal from 0.9503 peak, which was interrupted by 0.9327/0.9454 corrective rally. Negative near-term studies support further weakness, however, hesitation ahead of 0.9320 base could be expected, as hourly studies are oversold. Corrective rallies should stay under 0.94 barrier, to keep fresh bears intact.

Resistance: 0.9376; 0.9407; 0.9429; 0.9454
Support: 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9250



AUD/NZD

The pair trades in near-term corrective phase mode, after fresh bears found support at 1.0619. Upside acceleration regained initial barrier at 1.0730, which puts immediate bears on hold and opens way for stronger recovery. The notion is supported by positive near-term studies, with overbought hourly conditions suggesting a pause in the rally. Psychological 1.07 support should keep the downside protected, to keep upside attempts in play. Next targets lie at 1.08 and 1.0834, 02 July lower top.

Resistance: 1.0745; 1.0783; 1.0800; 1.0834
Support: 1.0730; 1.0700; 1.0660; 1.0635



XAU/USD

Spot Gold has eventually broke below psychological 1300 support, on extension of bearish acceleration from fresh high at 1344. Daily close below 1300, confirms near-term bearish outlook and opens way for further retracement of 1240/1344 upleg, as the price already reached the next target at 1292, 50% retracement. Oversold near-term studies suggest corrective actions ahead of fresh attempts lower, with break below 1292 to open 1286, 200SMA and 1280, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Previous support at 1313, also lower top of 15 July and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1344/1292 descend, should limit rallies.

Resistance: 1300; 1304; 1313; 1318
Support: 1292; 1286; 1280; 1265