Market Outlook: Euro Trades In Consolidative Mode

EUR/USD

The euro continues to trade in consolidative mode above 1.35 base / main bull-trendline off 1.2042 low, strong support which was cracked last Friday, on a spike lower to 1.3489. The pair failed to sustain break and entered narrow–range sideways trade, after limited recovery attempt, being capped at 1.3547, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3639/1.3489 downleg. Triple Doji candle confirms near-term indecision. Hourly studies are neutral, while 4-hour structure remains negatively aligned, suggesting further downside as favored scenario, on completion of limited corrective actions. Fresh leg lower requires clear break below 1.35 handle and 1.3475, 03 Feb low, to confirm bearish resumption and enter stronger correction of larger 1.2042, July 2012 low / 1.3992, May 2014 peak. Extended correction above 1.3547, to face strong barrier at 1.3575/85, former lows and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3690/1.3489 descend, where rallies should be ideally capped, while break here would delay bears and open key lower tops at 1.3639/49, 14/10 July highs.

Resistance: 1.3547; 1.3575; 1.3585; 1.3626
Support: 1.3512; 1.3502; 1.3489; 1.3475



EUR/JPY

The pair consolidates recent losses under 1.7000 handle, which found temporary support at 136.69. Positively aligned hourly studies and attempts above near-term range top at 137.27, are supportive for possible extended recovery phase, which requires break above 137.35/40, Fibonacci 38.2% of 138.43/136.69 descend and 17 July lower tops, to confirm recovery. Negative 4-hour studies, reversing from oversold zone are supportive, however, overall negative structure requires more significant gains and extension above 138.43 lower top, to change direction and avert risk of retesting pivotal 136.21, 04 Feb higher low.

Resistance: 137.40; 137.76; 138.07; 138.43
Support: 137.00; 136.87; 136.69; 136.21



GBP/USD

Cable holds negative near-term tone and consolidates losses off 1.7189 peak, which posted fresh low at 1.7034 on 18 July. Upside attempts stay so far limited at 1.71 barrier that keeps downmove off 1.7189 intact, for test of psychological 1.7000 support and deeper pullback, seen on sustained break lower. Near-term technicals are weak and support further descend. Alternatively, clear break above 1.71 handle to delay bears and confirm prolonged sideways movements.

Resistance: 1.7100; 1.7115; 1.7148; 1.7166
Support: 1.7075; 1.7057; 1.7034; 1.7000



USD/JPY

The pair extends near-term recovery off 101.05, after leaving higher low at 101.22 and extending above previous high at 101.43. Rally retraced over 61.8% of 101.78/101.05 descend, seeing potential for attempt at the first pivot at 101.78, break of which to confirm double bottom formation and pen way for stronger recovery, which also requires lift above 101.85 lower top / 55/200SMA death-cross. Overbought hourly studies suggest a pause in current rally, with increased downside risk seen on extension below 101.35, 38.2% of 101.07/101.56 / 20/55SMa bull-cross. However, overall negative structure so far sees upside actions limited and downside favored, while 101.85/102.25 barriers stay intact.

Resistance: 101.56; 101.78; 101.85; 102.00
Support: 101.43; 101.26; 101.18; 101.05



AUD/USD

The pair trades in near-term range mode, with the upside so far being limited at 0.94 zone and the downside protected at strong 0.9320 support and short-term base, also daily Ichimoku cloud top. Improved near-tem studies on a rally from 0.9334, which left higher low at 0.9358, keep the price at the upper part of the range, with attempts above 0.94 handle seen as favored in the near-term. Break higher requires confirmation on regain of 0.9454 spike high, to confirm break into the upper part of short-term 0.9320/0.9503 range and open key 0.9503 peak for retest.

Resistance: 0.9408; 0.9436; 0.9454; 0.9503
Support: 0.9358; 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300



AUD/NZD

The pair extends near-term corrective phase from 1.0619, where near-term base was left and retraced the biggest part of 1.0834/1.0619 descend, on a probe above psychological 1.08 barrier. Firmly bullish near-term structure sees final push towards pivotal 1.0834 peak as favored, as the pair completes near-term 1.0821/1.0769 corrective phase, with break higher to confirm base at 1.0619 for more significant reversal of larger 1.1030/1.0619 descend. Extension above 1.0834 to focus next barriers at 1.0873/80, Fibonacci 61.8% / descending 200SMA.

Resistance: 1.0834; 1.0850; 1.0880; 1.0900
Support: 1.0769; 1.0750; 1.0725; 1.0700



XAU/USD

Spot Gold’s near-term studies are losing traction after pullback from 1324 recovery high was contained at 1304 and subsequent attempt higher stalled at 1318. Renewed attempt at 1304, sees increased downside risk, as break lower and violation of psychological 1300 support will confirm lower top formation at 1318 and renewed attempt below 1300 handle. This will also signal an end of corrective phase and re-focus lower targets. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour indicators at the midlines, support the notion. Alternatively, prolonged sideways trade would be expected in case 1304 support holds, with bulls requiring clear break above 1318/24 peaks, to return to play.

Resistance: 1313; 1318; 1324; 1339
Support: 1304; 1300; 1295; 1292