Market Outlook: EUR/JPY Remains Under Pressure

EUR/USD

The euro continues to move in consolidative mode above fresh lows at1.35 zone, with near-term structure showing slight improvement, as fresh strength tested the first layer of resistances at 1.3577/85, 38.2% of 1.3676/1.3511 / former lower base / daily Tenkan-sen line. Improved near-term conditions still require sustained break and daily close above 1.36 barrier to exit the current range and signal stronger rebound towards 1.3676/88, 06 June lower top / 38.2% retracement of 1.3992/1.3501 descend, level that marks the first breakpoint. Otherwise, further sideways movements would be expected in case the price action stays capped under 1.36 handle, with downside risk to remain in play as overall picture is bearish. Loss of 1.35 base to open the downside break point at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low / main bull-trendline off 1.2042 low.

Resistance: 1.3587; 1.3600; 1.3645; 1.3676
Support: 1.3555; 1.3529; 1.3511; 1.3501




EUR/JPY

The pair remains under pressure overall, with near-term price action trading in consolidative phase off fresh lows and near-term base at 137.70. Negative structure on the larger picture keeps risk of extension of the downtrend from 140.07 lower top towards key short-term support and higher low at 136.21, 04 Feb low. However, positive hourly and improving 4-hour studies, suggest that further recovery cannot be ruled out in the near-term, with break of strong 138.55/70 resistance zone, range tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 140.07/137.70 / 200SMA, required to confirm base and trigger stronger recovery.

Resistance: 138.53; 138.66; 139.16; 139.37
Support: 138.00; 137.70; 137.00; 136.50




GBP/USD

Cable remains supported and consolidates within narrow range, recent strength which eventually cracked 1.7000 barrier, on acceleration from 1.6736 higher low. Overall positive picture favors fresh phase higher, once the pair clearly breaks 1.70 barrier, with immediate target at 1.7041, Aug 2009 peak. However, extended consolidative action under 1.70 handle is seen likely near-term scenario, as condition on 4-hour chart are overbought. Previous peaks at 1.6917/19, along with psychological/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement 1.69 support, are seen as ideal points to contain corrective dips.

Resistance: 1.7009; 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150
Support: 1.6950; 1.6919; 1.6900; 1.6844



USD/JPY

Near-term price action extended pullback off fresh high at 102.78 below pivotal 102.10/00 support zone, to find temporary support at 101.59, near Fibonacci 61.8% of 100.81/102.78 upleg and 200SMA. Triangular consolidation is under way, with hourly studies improving but 4-hour picture still holding negative tone. Unless the price clears 112.12, current consolidation tops, which would allow for stronger bounce, risk of re-visiting 101.59/41 low and extension towards 101.00 and 101.81/74, would remain in play.

Resistance: 102.12; 102.41; 102.63; 102.78
Support: 101.70; 101.59; 101.41; 101.20



AUD/USD

The pair lost traction and fell to 0.9349, previous low / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.09209/0.9437, after forming hourly Head and Shoulders pattern. This could be signal of more significant reversal in case the price slides below 0.9349 and attempts below 0.9313, daily cloud top psychological 0.930 support. Negative hourlies and 4-hour indicators attempting below the midlines, support such scenario. However, bullish daily tools see the action limited so far, as larger picture shows the price action entrenched within broader 0.9200/0.9437 range and still holding near-the upper range’s boundary.

Resistance: 0.9400; 0.9437; 0.9460; 0.9500
Support: 0.9349; 0.9323; 0.9300; 0.9261



AUD/NZD

The pair maintains negative tone as fresh weakness, following corrective attempt failure at 1.0872, continues to move lower and slid below psychological 1.08 support. As bears are in play on all timeframes, more downside attempts will be favored. Higher low of 21 May, also main bull-trendline, is immediate target, ahead of daily cloud base at 1.0720 and psychological 1.07 support. Oversold 4-hour studies, however, suggest a pause in current descend, with lower top at 1.0872 expected to ideally cap. Reversal confirmation requires break below1257, Fibonacci 61.8% and previous highs.

Resistance: 1.0872; 1.0900; 1.0933; 1.0978
Support: 1.0800; 1.0790; 1.0743; 1.0700



XAU/USD

Spot Gold pulled back off fresh high at 1284 and accelerated correction after losing pivotal 1270 support. The price dipped to 1262 so far, 50% retracement of 1240/1284 rally, with oversold hourly studies suggesting a break in current descend. This level could be seen as good reversal point, as 4-hour structure is still positive and bounce through 1270/77 to confirm. However, caution is required as daily studies remain negative and reversal pattern is developing on a daily chart. Reversal confirmation requires break below1257, Fibonacci 61.8% and previous highs.

Resistance: 1268; 1272; 1284; 1288
Support: 1262; 1257; 1250; 1245