Market Followup: May 5 - May 9, 2014

The list also indicates how much each release deviated from the market consensus forecast upon release, as well as what the affected major currency pair or pairs did after each event or set of events.

Monday, May 5th

• All Day JPY Bank Holiday. The currency rose.
• 2:30am AUD Building Approvals -3.5% versus 1.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 2:45am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 48.1versus 48.4 expected. The currency rose.
• All Day GBP Bank Holiday. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 55.2 versus 54.3 expected. The currency fell.

Tuesday, May 6th

• All Day JPY Bank Holiday
• 2:30am AUD Trade Balance 0.73B versus 1.10B expected. The currency rose.
• 5:30am AUD Cash Rate unchanged at 2.50% versus 2.50% expected. The currency rose.
• 5:30am AUD RBA Rate Statement noted that, ““. The currency rose.
• 9:30am GBP Services PMI 58.7 versus 57.9 expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm CAD Trade Balance 0.1B versus 0.4B expected. The currency rose.
• 1:30pm USD Trade Balance -40.4B versus -40.1B expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm CAD Ivey PMI 54.1 versus 54.5 expected. The currency rose.
• 11:45pm NZD Employment Change 0.9% versus 0.6% expected. The currency rose.
• 11:45pm NZD Unemployment Rate 6.0% versus 5.8% expected. The currency rose.

Wednesday, May 7th

• 2:30am AUD Retail Sales 0.1% versus 0.4% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Building Permits -3.0% versus 3.9% expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm USD Fed Chair Yellen testified that, "While we have seen substantial improvements in labor market conditions and the overall economy since the financial crisis and severe recession, we recognize that more must be accomplished. Many Americans who want a job are still unemployed, inflation continues to run below the FOMC's longer-run objective, and work remains to further strengthen our financial system. I will continue to work closely with my colleagues and others to carry out the important mission that the Congress has given the Federal Reserve." The currency rose.

Thursday, May 8th

• 2:30am AUD Employment Change 14.2K versus 7.5K expected. The currency rose.
• 2:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.8% versus 5.9% expected. The currency rose.
• 3:19am CNY Trade Balance 18.5B versus 15.2B expected.
• All Day EUR French Bank Holiday. The currency fell.
• 12:00pm GBP Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 375B versus 375B expected. The currency fell.
• 12:00pm GBP Official Bank Rate Decision unchanged at 0.50% versus 0.50% expected. The currency fell.
• 12:00pm GBP MPC Rate Statement noted that, "The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting today voted to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion. The Committee’s latest economic projections will appear in the forthcoming Inflation Report to be published at 10.30 a.m. on Wednesday 14 May." The currency fell.
• 12:45pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate Decision unchanged at 0.25% versus 0.25% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm EUR ECB Press Conference noted that, "I would say that the governing council is comfortable with acting next time but before we want to see the staff projections that will come out in early June...There is consensus about being dissatisfied with the projected path of inflation. So there is a consensus with not being resigned to expecting this ... We have a consensus about action, but after seeing the staff projections in early June." The currency fell.
• 1:30pm USD Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 319K versus 328K expected. The currency rose.

Friday, May 9th

• 2:30am AUD RBA Monetary Policy Statement noted that, "The pass-through of an exchange rate depreciation to consumer prices typically occurs over the course of several years because of the length of existing contracts, exchange rate hedging practices and businesses in the distribution chain temporarily absorbing currency fluctuations in their margins. The complexity of this process means that the size and speed of pass-through is highly uncertain. Pass-through in coming quarters could be faster than the historical average because retailers have increasingly sourced imported products directly rather than through domestic wholesalers. Working in the other direction, the soft state of demand might limit the extent to which firms are able to pass through higher imported costs." The currency fell.
• 2:30am CNY CPI 1.8% versus 2.1% expected.
• 9:30am GBP Manufacturing Production 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Employment Change -28.9K versus 14.9K expected. The currency fell.
• 1:30pm CAD Unemployment Rate 6.9% versus 6.9% expected. The currency fell.
• 3:00pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 4.01M versus 4.21M expected. The currency rose.

Majors Recap:

EUR/USD:

Forecast: Mildly Higher
Actual: Lower from a 1.3872 open to a 1.3765 close.

USD/JPY:

Forecast: Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 102.25 open to a 101.75 close.

GBP/USD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.6873 open to a 1.6852 close.

AUD/USD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly higher from a 0.9280 open to a 0.9354 close.

USD/CAD:

Forecast: Mildly Lower
Actual: Mildly lower from a 1.0975 open to a 1.0894 close.

NZD/USD:

Forecast: Higher
Actual: Mildly lower from a 0.8662 open to a 0.8614 close.

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