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Macro Notes: BRICs Underperform; Gold, Miners Oversold

Published 04/17/2013, 02:16 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
Topic: BRICs equity markets have been struggling late 2010

BRICs
  • Chinese Shanghai Composite has been in a downtrend since late 2007, despite a powerful bear market rally in early parts of 2009. The index is 63% below its all time highs and 35% below its peak in late 2009. On the other hand, the index is still up 27% from the November 2008 lows. China's official debt to GDP ratio stands at 22% (unofficial might be a lot higher just like in the US & EU), equity market P/E at 9.4 and price to book at 1.44.
  • Indian Bombay Sensex recently re-tested the 2008 and 2010 highs around 20,000 - 21000 point range. The index is 10% below its all time highs and about 6% below its recent peak at the begining of the year. Indian equities have experienced a tremendous gain of 125% from the March 2009 lows. India's official debt to GDP ratio stands at 68% (unofficial might be a lot higher just like in the US and EU), equity market P/E at 16.2 and price to book at 1.9.
  • Russian Trading System remains in a downtrend since its 2011 highs around 2,123 points. Russia being one of the world's largest commodity exporters, the index holds a close correlation with the CRB as well as Crude Oil prices. The RTSI is 45% below its all time highs in 2008 and about 36% below its last major peak in April 2011 (same time Crude Oil peaked). Russia's official debt to GDP ratio stands at only 11% (unofficial might be a lot higher just like in the US and EU), equity market P/E at 5.2 and price to book at 0.7.
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  • Brazilian Bovespa is currently re-testing its support level from 2011 and 2012 corrections around 52,000 point range. Similar to the Russian equity story, the index holds a close correlation with the CRB prices, as Brazil exports large amounts of commodities to the world. The Bovespa is 27% below its all time highs in 2008 and about 26% below its recent major peak in 2011 (just like the CRB Index). Brazil's official debt to GDP ratio stands at 65% (unofficial might be a lot higher just like in the US and EU), equity market P/E at 13.2 and price to book at 1.6.


Topic: Gold Miners extremely oversold at the level of 8%


Gold Miners BPI
disagreeing with the official HUI BPI

Topic: Gold price is at most oversold reading... ever!

Gold Most Oversold

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